The relationship between guns and crime is a controversial measure for the appropriate degree of firearm regulation in some countries, such as the United States. One major aspect of the argument involves potential positive or negative correlations that many argue exist between crime, especially violent crime, and gun ownership. Both sides actively debate the relevance of gun laws and self-defense in modern society. Correlations are, of course, hard to establish, because countries with different gun laws are never the same in all other aspects.

A European example would be to compare the violent crime levels of the United Kingdom, which has very strict rules against gun ownership, with Switzerland, which has fully automatic assault rifles in 14% of homes.  According to the British Home Office, Switzerland had a homicide rate per 100,000 of 1.2 average over the years 1999-2001, which is less than England & Wales at 1.61, although Scotland is higher at 2.16, while Northern Ireland - with its historically exceptional conditions - is at 2.65. The latter compares with the Irish Republic (with similar gun control laws to the UK) at 1.42.

These data indicate a negative correlation between gun ownership and crime. However, simple correlative evidence concerning two examples is inconclusive as to causation. Put another way, these data do not conclusively indicate that the higher gun ownership rate in Switzerland is a cause of that country's lower homicide rate, although that conclusion is frequently drawn. In addition, the prevalence of firearms in Switzerland is a direct result of its rigidly-controlled citizen army comprising most of the adult male population, who keep their service weapons at home, and so can be viewed as an exceptional case not directly comparable to other countries, even those with a high level of private firearms ownership.

Gun crime figures

Crime in England and Wales 2006-07 [PDF 2.7MB] gives a current viewpoint

Since the start of 2007, eight young people have lost their lives in shootings - six in London, one in Manchester and now the killing of 11-year-old Rhys Jones in Liverpool.

According to provisional Home Office figures, there were 58 firearms-related homicides in 2006-07 compared with 49 in the previous year. That is an increase of 18% in just one year. If we include airguns, the number of homicides in 2006-07 rises to 61. There were 413 firearms incidents that resulted in serious injury - more than one a day.

But at the same time, the trend in gun crime overall has been going down.

National figures

Overall firearms offences fell 13% in 2006-07 to 9,608 incidents - the lowest number in seven years. Firearms robberies, handgun offences and serious injuries from firearms are also down.

Just over half of all firearms offences occurred in just three major forces - the Metropolitan Police in London, Greater Manchester and West Midlands.

Drilling down into the national figures up to the end of April 2006 shows that West Midlands, Merseyside and Greater Manchester Police have all experienced drops in firearms offences whereas London has seen an increase.

The Metropolitan Police says that in the 12 months to July 2007 it saw a 3.5% rise in firearms offences - up from 3,485 to 3,607 incidents.

Nottingham is another city that has struggled with a guns label after a number of killings in 2004, including schoolgirl Danielle Beccan - but its police chiefs say public perception is at odds with reality because the city witnesses far fewer incidents per resident than other so-called gun hotspots. Figures show Nottinghamshire Police recorded one firearms-related death in 2006 and none as of August 2007.

While there has been substantial concern in recent years over the use of imitation weapons in gang incidents - not least because some can be converted into real guns - the figures show there has also been a decrease here.

Further detailed research on firearms crimes on a regional basis will be published in 2008.

What all of this means is that we cannot draw any simple nationwide conclusions about gun crime. What we can say with certainty is that gun crime is a problem that remains closely focused in some cities that have witnessed some terrible deaths.

The figures do not show that gun crime is prolific or widespread in England and Wales.

Knife crime

In fact, the most common weapon used in a violent crime in England and Wales is not a gun - but a knife.

There are almost four times more knife-related killings as firearms-related killings, according to recent figures.

Of the 18 violent teenager deaths in London since the beginning of 2007, 12 have been stabbings.

The Centre for Crime and Justice Studies at King's College London recently came up with its own figures.

It suggested that between 22,000 and 57,900 young people could have been victims of knife crime in 2004 - although it says without accurate data it is impossible to know for sure.

The Home Office says it is changing the way crime figures are collected to help the public better understand the impact on their area. One of the key changes is going to be separate knife crimes figures from 2008.

The question of youth