| Return to
opening page |
. |
|
Iran War Beckons2006-02-16The US, UK, and Israel are all actively considering war with Iran. Many military strategists are of the view it is not a question of if but when. In the Asia Times, Paul Levian states that Iran's mullahs could be in for a "big and deadly surprise". They have been pushing ahead with plans to develop nuclear weapons in the fond belief there's nothing anyone can do about it. Media commentators around the world insist America is in no position to attack while it is bogged down in Iraq. In any case, the argument goes, Iran would be much harder to defeat, being stronger, more cohesive and with a fat more difficult terrain. But Iran is more vulnerable than it thinks. A "substantial" military infrastructure is already in place on Iran's borders to handle a quick military build-up, and American and British forces in the region could easily redeploy on short notice. Iran won't get any help from France: President Chirac is as worried as everyone else about Iran's nuclear ambitions; he recently implied that France would even agree to America using nuclear weapons against Iran if absolutely necessary'. Nor can Iran rely on Russia and China staving off action indefinitely if it refuses Russia's compromise solution of handling uranium enrichment itself. A war would be devastating for Iran: if it dared retaliate with chemical warheads the US could use nuclear weapons against military and industrial targets. One thing's for sure: this will be no Iraq. There will be no "showcasing of democracy", no "nation-building, and journalists and Red Cross officials will mostly likely be kept well away. A Monster of our own making Iran's nuclear activity is military, says French minister New Fatwa states that religious raw does not forbid use of ruclear reapons New accusations against web-bloggers inside Iran Allister Heath says that by creating chaos in Iraq, the West has allowed Iran to emerge as a dominant and extremely dangerous regional power Cyrus the Great, the ancient Persian king who allowed the Jews to return to Jerusalem and wrote the first charter of human rights, must be spinning in his grave. Once the world's most advanced civilisation, Iran is yet again descending into barbarism under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the rabid fanatic who took power in a rigged election last year. A former member of the elite Revolutionary Guards, Ahmadinejad is determined to return Iran to what he believes to be its rightful place at the vanguard of the global Islamic revolution. At first the world chose to turn a blind eye to his inflammatory rhetoric; but even the West's most deluded diplomats now take him seriously when he calls for Israel to be wiped off the map, especially given that his government is also busily developing a nuclear programme. Ahmadinejad's rise was always going to be bad news for Iran's long-suffering population; but it is now looking equally catastrophic for the rest of the Middle East, which is suddenly waking up lo the prospect of a newly dominant Iran. For it is now becoming all too clear that the Islamic Republic has emerged as the surprise victor from the invasion of Iraq and is making the most of the power vacuum in the Gulf to establish itself as the new regional superpower. The demise of Iraq, together with Iran's dash to nuclear capability — another development that the West has disastrously mishandled — has meant that the balance of power is changing radically in the Middle East, with Iran firmly in the ascendancy. Control of Iraq, together with (he acquisition of the weapons of mass destruction that all serious experts believe to be the aim of its nuclear programme, would make Iran the Gulfs uncontested hegemon as well as the pre-eminent force within political Islam, a stunning double victory now within Tehran's reach. This would be an unmitigated disaster. Iran is the world's most active state sponsor and paymaster of terrorism; its allies include (among others) the Lebanese Shia militants of Hezbollah (which Iran helped found in the 1980s); the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, which has now just been elected to power; the Palestinian Islamic Jihad; various groups in central Asia and Afghanistan; and many of the despicable terrorists who are murdering people every day in Iraq in an effort to destroy its first glimpse of freedom. A nuclear Iran raises the horrifying spectre of nuclear-armed suicide terrorists at some point during the next decade. What is most astonishing about Iran's sudden ascendancy is how much of it now seems due to a terrible strategic miscalculation by the US and its allies. A strong and determined government in Baghdad has long proved the major stumbling block lo Iran's ambitions in the Gulf, which is why the US and Britain backed Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s as a bulwark against the spread of Islamic extremism, then rightly seen as a greater evil than Saddam Hussein's secular dictatorship. But following the invasion of Iraq this traditional counterweight has now been eliminated and replaced by a weak and enfeebled government which cannot even control its own territory, let alone stand up to the mullahs in Tehran. The south of Iraq has been turned into an Iranian quasi-protectorate with police and local militias controlled by Tehran; the British troops that were once supposedly in charge are now merely garrisoned there. Iran, a Shia Muslim country, has been given a further boost by the result of Iraq's elections, which have returned a Shia majority with a mandate to introduce what in effect amounts to an Islamic republic, a far cry from Saddam's atheist regime, which favoured the Sunni minority. It is no wonder, therefore, that a senior retired State Department official has told this magazine that it is becoming clear that the invasion of Iraq was "the biggest strategic blunder in recent US foreign policy' — not because of the failure to discover the expected weapons of mass destruction, but because by removing one of the main bulwarks to Iranian expansionism without replacing it with a viable alternative, the West has unleashed a hostile regional superpower it is unable or unwilling to contain. It is only by luck that the whole of Iraq has not already gone the way of its southern tip. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the distinguished leader of Iraq's Shia majority and the most powerful man in the country, so far appears to have retained his independence from Iran, against all the odds. He has refused to meet representatives of the Tehran government; even though al-Sistani is actually an Iranian citizen, he seems to prefer traditional Shia doctrine to the revolutionary fare favoured by the Iranians. So while he does support an Islamic state, complete with tough restrictions, al-Sistani's version could yet turn out to be quite different from that seen in Iran. By contrast, the anti-American Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose supporters grabbed 30 seats in the new parliament, openly supports Iran and Syria and has already met their leaders. The Iranians are doing all they can to boost al-Sadr and other radicals, hoping that they will eventually take over from al-Sistani, who has recently suffered from heart trouble, and swing the Shia behind Iran. Bui they dare not openly undermine al-Sistani, who is revered by the Shia, and are biding their time. In parallel with their growing activities and influence in Iraq, the Iranians are reinforcing their ties with their allies across the Middle East. Last month Ahmadinejad flew to Damascus to meet Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president; the two have worked closely together in their support of Hezbollah. And as part of its strategy once again to become the dominant force in political Islam, a position it had relinquished to al-Qa'eda and the Islamic Brotherhood, the Iranian regime is intensifying its anti-Semitic rhetoric and reiterating its long-held position that the Middle East should be entirely Islamic. Last week Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is often wrongly believed to be a moderating influence, made a fantastical contribution to the bitter international row over the publication of cartoons satirising the prophet Mohammed, claiming that they were an Israeli conspiracy motivated by Hamas's win in the Palestinian elections, even though they were first published in Denmark several months before the elections. Ahmadinejad has also intensified the persecution of Iran's 350,000 adherents of the Bahai religion, accused of the crimes of apostasy and of spying for Israel because some of their ancestors converted from Islam in the 19th century. Those watching with trepidation as Iran plans its next move include the small Gulf countries — Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain — as well as Saudi Arabia. A nuclear-armed Iran would be far more confident about intimidating its neighbours. The Gulf states all have sizeable Shia populations, which they fear the Iranians will seek to turn against them. The Straits of Hormuz. the world's most important waterway, which links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is thus a priceless strategic asset, is obviously Iran's main target. Some 16 million barrels per day of oil from Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates pass through the Straits daily, one fifth of the world's oil demand, as well as large quantities of liquefied gas. Iran could exercise immense influence and wreak immense economic damage if it were to take over or bomb the waterway. Saudi Arabia, the only other country in the region that could theoretically stand up to Iran, is in no fit state to do so. The House of Saud is terrified at the thought of a nuclear Iran and is rumoured to be considering purchasing nuclear weapons from Pakistan if and when Iran goes nuclear, though this would infuriate its US allies. Among the increasing number of voices expressing their concerns about Iran's bid for regional hegemony is that of Muhammad Abdullah al-Zulfa, a member of the Shura Council of Saudi Arabia. 'As a Gulf area, we don't want to see Iran as the major power in the area,' he says. 'And we don't want to see Iran having this nuclear weapon, where it will be a major threat to the stability of the Gulf area and even to the Arab world altogether.' King Abdullah II of Jordan has been most eloquent, warning that a Shia-led Iraq would develop a special relationship with Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Lebanese Hezbollah (and now also Hamas-run Palestine) to create a 'crescent... that will be very destabilising for the Gulf countries and for the whole region'. He argues that a 'capable, independent, secure Iraq is the best way of containing Iran'. Iran has also been tightening its links with Russia and China, which will come in handy if it is looking for countries to veto any hostile UN Security Council resolution on its nuclear programme. Russia has confirmed a deal to sell Iran TOR-M1 surface-to-air missiles, which use mobile launchers to shoot down multiple targets such as missiles or planes. In an extraordinarily reckless move for a country with its own terrorist problems in Chechnya, the Kremlin has also offered to process uranium for Tehran. Meanwhile Iran has signed a 200 billion dollar trade deal with Beijing to supply energy-hungry China with gas and oil. Iran will export 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually for 25 years; the Chinese will help in exploration and drilling. It never pays to dismiss the fascistic ranting of a dictatorship with expansionary ambitions, however mad they may seem to an uncomprehending Western society. With propaganda rife on Iranian TV, an official policy of Holocaust denial and presidential calls to wipe Israel off the map, it beggars belief that anybody can still think that Iran poses no threat to world peace — at least the International Atomic Energy' Agency's decision last week to refer Iran to the UN Security Council has forced people to start paying attention. Tragically, years of Western delusion about the regime's intentions, a failure to grasp that traditional logic is redundant with people who believe that God is on their side, together with the diversion of Iraq, have meant that it is now probably too late to stop Iran. While Israel may well decide to take matters into its own hands and launch air strikes to take out Iranian nuclear installations, this would be unlikely to have the desired effect. Even a brilliantly executed operation will not destroy every facility concealed in fortified bunkers spread across the country. Any attack would trigger uncontrollable violence across the Middle East, with unpredictable consequences. The uncomfortable truth is that if Iran's influence over what it insists on calling the Persian Gulf continues to grow over the next few years, and if the memory of King Cyrus the Great is further besmirched, the West will have only itself to blame. Iran's nuclear activity
is military, says French minister
Taken from the Daily Telegraph 16/02/2006) France's foreign minister has said Iran is operating a "clandestine military nuclear programme" and called on the United Nations Security Council to take strong action in order to avoid a potential crisis. Philippe Douste-Blazy told a French television station that Teheran's had ignored international warnings and was not telling the truth about its nuclear ambitions. "No civil nuclear program can explain the Iranian nuclear program. It is a clandestine military nuclear program," said Mr Douste-Blazy. "The international community has sent a very firm message in telling the Iranians to return to reason and suspend all nuclear activity and the enrichment and conversion of uranium, but they aren't listening to us." Mr Douste-Blazy's comments are the latest stage in the diplomatic row over Iran's decision to resume nuclear enrichment work. Teheran insists it is to generate nuclear power but the international community fears the country is building nuclear weapons. The UN Security Council is to consider Iran's nuclear programme next month after European-led negotiations failed to persuade Iran to suspend parts of its nuclear program. "Now it's up to the Security Council to say what it will do, what means it will use to stop, to manage, to halt this terrible crisis of nuclear proliferation caused by Iran," Mr Douste-Blazy said. Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, hit back at the comments by telling French radio Iran was THE MIDDLE EAST MEDIA
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
February 17, 2006 No.1096 On February 16, 2006, the reformist Internet daily Rooz (www.roozonline.com) reported for the first time that extremist clerics from Qom had issued what the daily called "a new fatwa," which states that "the shari'a does not forbid the use of nuclear weapons." The following are excerpts from the Rooz report by Shahram Rafizadeh:(1) "When the Entire World is Armed With Nuclear Weapons, it is Permissible to Use These Weapons as a Counter-[Measure]" "The spiritual leaders of the ultra-conservatives [in Iran] have accepted the use of nuclear weapons as lawful in the eyes of the shari'a. Mohsen Gharavian, a disciple of [Ayatollah] Mesbah Yazdi [who is Iranian President Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor], has spoken for the first time of using nuclear weapons as a counter-measure. He stated that 'in terms of the shari'a, it all depends on the goal.' "The religious leadership of the Islamic Republic [of Iran], which has until now regarded the use of nuclear weapons as opposed to the Shari'a, and has repeated this point again and again, has so far kept silent about this. In spite of the fact that, in the last few weeks, some of the senior [leaders] of the Islamic Republic have tried to reduce the pressure [exerted by] the radical [conservatives], the radicals nevertheless seem to have complete control over the [political] arena. "[Iranian National Security Council Secretary] Ali Larijani, who is in charge of the nuclear dossier, has spoken to reporters only once since the [IAEA] Board of Governors approved its resolution – and his silence is significant.(2) But yesterday, the IraNews news agency published recent remarks by Mohsen Gharavian regarding the nuclear issue. Gharavian is a lecturer at the religious schools of Qom, and is a disciple of [Ayatollah] Mesbah Yazdi. In his recent remarks, he said for the first time that the use of nuclear weapons may not constitute a problem according to shari'a. He further said that 'when the entire world is armed with nuclear weapons, it is permissible to use these weapons as a counter-[measure]. According to the shari'a, too, only the goal is important...' "[Gharavian] said that he sees no problem with the military use of nuclear weapons [sic]: 'One must say that when the entire world is armed with nuclear weapons, it is only natural that, as a counter-measure, it is necessary to be able to use these weapons. However, what is important is what goal they may be used for." "The Ultra-[Conservatives] in Iran Have Launched a New Effort to Prepare the Religious Grounds for Use of These Weapons" "This cleric, who is close to the government, also referred to the nuclear talks and to the future phases of the negotiations. He called the 'reporting' – rather than 'referring' – of the Iranian nuclear dossier [to the Security Council] playing with semantics, and said: 'The main goal of the West has been to put pressure on the Islamic Republic regime of Iran in order to generate fear. However, we will wait [to see] the future behavior of Europe and America, and then make the best decision.' "Gharavian's statement is the first public statement by the Mesbah Yazdi group on the nuclear issue. Until now, none of the top-ranking religious [leaders] have authorized, on religious grounds, the use of nuclear weapons. But now it seems that the ultra-[conservatives] in Iran have launched a new effort to prepare the religious grounds for use of these weapons..." "Mr. Ahmadinejad Has Managed to Take the Place of Bin Laden" "Within the six months [of Ahmadinejad's presidency], all the achievements of former president Khatami in the international arena have been lost. Through strange proposals and radical approaches, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad managed, in a very short time, to get the world to forget all about bin Laden. Now all eyes are on the Islamic Republic, and everyone is talking about the danger it [poses]. Two weeks ago, the strategy of assaulting [foreign] embassies was formed as well. America regards Iran and Syria as being behind the recent violent incidents, including the setting fire to embassies in Islamic countries. Mr. Ahmadinejad has managed to take the place of bin Laden..." While the filtering of internet sites has dramatically increased in Iran, Farid Modaressi and Hussein Abdollahpour, two web-bloggers from the religious city of Qom have been charged with spreading propaganda against the Islamic regime while communicating with Ahmad Shamlou, Iran’s prominent poet who passed away 5 years ago and Ayatollah Montazeri, the senior Qom cleric who was once the second most senior political figure after ayatollah Khomeini, until he fell out of favor and was put under house arrest. The court looking into the webloggers case claims that contacts with such anti-revolutionary individuals (Shamlou and Montazeri) are against the laws of the country. In another similar imprisonment, Arash Sigarchi a web-blogger who was sentenced to 14 years of prison was recently transferred to Rasht prison to spend his 3-year imprisonment. Among those arrested in the wave of last year’s crackdowns on bloggers in Iran, were Farid Modaressi, Hussein Abdollahpour, Hamed Mottaghi and Masoud Rahbari. Other bloggers in other cities such as Arash Sigarichi, Mohammad Reza NasabAbdollahi and Mojtaba Samieenejad were also arrested following their support and sympathy for their imprisoned friends. Mistreatment, arrest and torture of internet activists has sparked angry reactions of human rights activists and even some Iranian government officials. The persistence of an official investigative presidential committee created during former president Khatami's government has forced judicial officials to acknowledge the mistreatment and excesses of imprisoned web-bloggers. In his court hearing in Qom, Fardi Modaressi explained in detail the inhumane mistreatment that he had received in prison to the shocking ears of the listeners. He accused Qom judiciary officials of torturing him to extract fake confessions which were later published in pro-government hardline newspapers. Based on these forced confessions, the radical officials in the Qom judiciary have put Madaressi on trial and accused him of spreading propaganda against the Islamic state. The crackdown on bloggers has again intensified in recent months. Many popular and professional internet sites have been filtered to deny access to Iranians. Arash Sigarchi, the editor of Gilan daily and supporter of imprisoned bloggers was arrested and imprisoned recently. Mojtaba Samieenejad was also charged and sentenced to prison for “offending religious beliefs” in his blog and is spending his two-year sentence in prison for it. Following an investigation conducted by an institute affiliated to the hardline ministry of culture, a number of bloggers have shut down their sites in recent weeks without specifying their reasons. The study has divided Iranian bloggers into two groups of supporters and opponents of the Islamic regime. The report claims that the blogs that support the Islamic regime are more popular among web users. The research neglects to mention the harsh and inhuman mistreatment of the arrested webloggers whose conditions have even brought tears to listening government officials. |
||
| meditations |
top |
|