Dreaming of Convergence? Israel goes to the polls

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Dreaming of Convergence? Israel goes to the polls The people of Israel go to the polls today (Tuesday 28 March)) to elect a new parliament, and the stakes are extraordinarily high. At issue is how to proceed in the wake of the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and the massive and absolute majority obtained by Hamas in the Palestinian elections of January this year. Yet, the election campaign has been almost soporific. While Prime Minister Ariel Sharon remains in a comatose state, the Israeli electorate appears to have been struck into impassivity too. But why? Part of the answer can be found in the latest opinion poll published on Monday in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, which confirms the constant trend seen in earlier surveys: a comfortable victory for the Kadima party established by Ariel Sharon at the end of 2005. Race over The polls predict the party - now led by caretaker Prime Minister Ehud Olmert - will take 36 of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. This would appear to indicate that the race is already over and, therefore, the voters needn't worry any more about the result. This impression has been causing the Kadima campaign leaders a certain amount of concern because of the potential danger that many of its 'own' voters will simply not bother to vote. Kadima is also worried that other voters will decide to vote tactically, on the basis that if Kadima has already won and will lead the next government any way, one can perhaps influence its choice of coalition partner by voting either right or left, depending on one's own political preference. Left or right Voters who fear a large rightwing bloc that could block Ehud Olmert's plans for the further evacuation of settlements - this time in the West Bank - will plump for the Labour Party of Amir Peretz. Those people who fear Kadima will indeed link up with Labour, however, will opt for the right-wing Likud party now led by former prime minister Benyamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. The latest polls show the Labour Party - which has a lost of number key figures to Kadima, including former prime minister Shimon Peres - taking 18 seats, half the number forecast for Kadima. Meanwhile, Likud - from which Kadima can be said to have sprouted - is predicted to take a meagre 14. Surprises Labour and Likud are taking comfort from the fact that Israeli opinion polls have frequently been way off the mark in the past, that the number of floating voters who've yet to make up their minds could account for as many as 28 seats in parliament, and that it is traditionally difficult to predict what some sections of the population - such as religious electors and the large group of people with a Russian background - are likely to do with their votes. So, it's not possible to rule out the chance of some major surprises occurring. Such a surprise is precisely what one leader is hoping for and, indeed, predicting. Rightwing politician Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beitenu ('Israel is our home') has a radical solution for the Palestinian problem and the fear that Israel will lose its predominantly Jewish character because of the high birth count among Israeli Arabs. The latter group of people are currently Israeli citizens, but not for much longer if Mr Lieberman were to get his way. His plan envisages them and the areas in which they are concentrated, Galilee in particular, being made part of a future Palestinian state, with the large Jewish West Bank settlements becoming a permanent part of Israel. It should be noted, however, that this is without the Israeli Arabs - the great majority of whom oppose the idea - being asked for their opinion. Olmert's gamble Meanwhile, the question arises as to how the likely election winner, Ehud Olmert, has - all so it would appear - effortlessly assumed the position and programme of the comatose prime minister, whilst lacking the authority and prestige of Ariel Sharon, and supposedly suffering from a personal lack of personality and charisma? He is playing a gambling game. Mr Olmert is gambling on the fatigue of the Israeli voters who want rid of the Palestinian problem, who want rid of the violence and would rather banish the Palestinians from their minds or, in any event, from their lives; people who don't see any future in peace negotiations, and certainly not since the Hamas election victory. Ehud Olmert is nurturing that feeling, promising a solution in the shape of his plan for 'convergence': Hamas is not a suitable negotiating partner, so Israel will draw its borders unilaterally. Following the Gaza pullout, Israel will go on to withdraw from a number of remote West Bank settlements, while making the larger settlements there, including East Jerusalem, a permanent part of an Israel that will be safe behind the 'wall' or security fence which it continues to build at great speed. That would simply be another unilateral annexation of occupied Palestinian territory which no Palestinian - be they a member of Hamas, Fatah or any other organisation or none at all - will ever accept. Nonetheless, the tired Israeli voter appears to be quite happy right now to be lulled to sleep by Mr Olmert's fairytale scenario. Bertus Hendriks See also Ariel Sharon Hamas
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