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Hezbollah and Israel - the situation escalates



As expected, the spectacular raid on Wednesday by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia in which two Israeli soldiers were abducted and eight others killed, has led to a rapid escalation of the violence in both Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Israel has already bombed the airport of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and Israeli army radio reports that the country intends to impose a total blockade of its northern neighbour, on land, at sea and in the air. 
 
In addition to Beirut airport, Hezbollah's own television station, al-Manar, has been the target of an Israeli bombardment, and several bridges in Lebanon have also been struck. On Thursday morning, the number of Lebanese nationals killed in various Israeli operations had already reached 34, with more than 50 other people injured.

Hezbollah, for its part, has been launching more Katyusha missiles into Northern Israel, killing one woman in Nahariya who had ignored the warnings to take cover in air raid shelters.

High price
Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, Israel's military operations continue unabated. On Wednesday, at least 24 Palestinians - including nine members of the same family - lost their lives in the violence. Israel is resolved to make it clear to both the Palestinians and the Lebanese that they will pay an extremely high price for the actions of Hamas and Hezbollah.
 
As always, Israel's western allies - the United States and Europe - have begun by defending the country's right to defend itself. But this is often soon followed by calls for Israel's response not to be disproportional. Such a call was already heard today - Thursday - from France, traditionally one of Lebanon's allies.

Restraint
Even the US has called on both sides for restraint. The US and a number of other European nations are already involved in two difficult military conflicts in the Arab-Islamic world - in Afghanistan and Iraq - and really could do without a serious escalation between Israel and the Palestinians and along the Lebanese border with Israel which could, in the worst case, end up unleashing a regional war.

But before the international community actually manages to cool the current conflict somewhat, Israel will have managed to deal a number of blows which will have considerable impact, particularly in Lebanon, which is still trying to get back on its feet after many years of civil war.

The destruction of vital infrastructure and a totally military blockade of the country will, of course, be a deathblow to trade, industry and tourism. In this way, Israel hopes to be able to force the Lebanese government to tackle Hezbollah and disarm the movement. The only problem is, Hezbollah is part of that government.
 
Acrobatics
Interestingly, that same government has already distanced itself from the action taken by Hezbollah - a display of political acrobatics which clearly indicates that Hezbollah's move is a source of tension within the government. Naturally enough, the Lebanese opposition is highly critical, but even allies of Hezbollah have cautiously indicated that they are not too happy with the action it has taken. They believe that no single party or group has the right to make moves which could lead to war, or at least upset the peace. Israel hopes that its tough reprisals will reinforce these differences inside Lebanon and push the other parties to turn against Hezbollah.

But as the amount of damage inflicted by Israel grows and the number of victims rises, the other parties in Lebanon will in fact find themselves under ever-more pressure to close ranks in resisting the country's external enemy. Furthermore, Hezbollah is not only a powerful party in Lebanon and the main representative of the country's largest community, the Shi'ites, it also has important regional allies: Syria and Iran.

Limits
For Syria, with part of its territory - the Golan Heights - still under Israeli occupation, support for Hamas and Hezbollah is one of the few remaining ways it can exert pressure on Israel. This also applies in the case of Iran as it finds itself in a serious confrontation with the US, Israel and Europe over its nuclear plans.

This means that what might at first appear to be a border conflict also has, in fact, regional and geopolitical dimensions which, in turn, will soon make it clear that Israel is not at total liberty to decide on the extent and duration of its military operations. In military terms, Israel may move rapidly from victory to victory, but each time it soon finds that there are political limits to its military might.
Bertus Hendriks 13-07-2006



Israel imposes Lebanon blockade
BBC News 13 July 2006
 
Israel is imposing an air and sea blockade on Lebanon as part of a major offensive after two soldiers were seized by the militant group Hezbollah. Israeli warships have entered Lebanese water to block ports, and its only international airport was closed after Israeli missiles blew up its runways. Raids on targets across south Lebanon have killed at least 35 civilians.

The operation comes as Israel continues a separate offensive in the Gaza Strip where another soldier was captured. The offensive in Lebanon follows a day of heavy fighting in which the Israelis suffered their worst losses on the border for several years. Eight soldiers were killed and two were injured, in addition to the two captured in a Hezbollah ambush.

Hezbollah guerrillas also fired volleys of rockets at the northern Israeli coastal town of Nahariya, killing one Israeli and injuring 14 others. Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev told the BBC that Israeli was responding to "an unprovoked act of aggression" by Lebanon. The US urges restraint from all parties, while recognising Israel's right to defend itself, White House officials said. France and Russia condemned Israel's "disproportionate use of force".

Blockade
An Israeli military spokesman said Israeli naval ships had entered Lebanese waters to block the transfer of "terrorists and weapons to the terror organisations operating in Lebanon". Earlier, three missiles hit runways at Beirut airport, the country's only international airport, forcing its closure. Flights have been diverted to Cyprus.

An Israeli army spokesman said the airport was used to supply weapons to Hezbollah. Israeli leaders have also spoken of extending the blockade to include travel by land, although the BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says this would be much harder to do, given the porous nature of the borders. The blockade follows wide-ranging Israeli air raids on southern Lebanon, which left 35 civilians dead, including at least 10 children. The Hezbollah television station al-Manar in southern Beirut was also hit. The station said three of its employees were hurt.

Responsibility
Israel said its jets hit 40 Hezbollah targets. Israel has said it holds Lebanon responsible for the soldiers' capture and views it as an "act of war".

Hezbollah has said the captured soldiers will not be returned without a release deal for Palestinian, Lebanese and other Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails. Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora denied any knowledge of the Hezbollah operation and refused to take responsibility for the soldiers' capture. Hezbollah's political wing is a significant force in Lebanese politics and has one government minister, while its powerful military wing has controlled the border zone since Israeli forces pulled out in 2000.

Volatile mix
Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz said if Lebanon did not deploy forces along its southern border, Israel would "not allow Hezbollah forces to remain on the borders of the state of Israel". Agriculture Minister Shalom Simchon said the Israeli government wanted to "change the rules of the game" in Lebanon and make its government "understand that it is responsible for what happens in Lebanon". In Gaza, Israeli jets attacked the Palestinian foreign ministry building in Gaza City, injuring at least 10 people.

The operation follows the capture of Israeli soldier Cpl Gilad Shalit by Palestinian militants two weeks ago. The BBC's World Affair's correspondent Nick Childs says the confrontations in Gaza and Lebanon are ringing alarm bells among world leaders. He says the combination an untried and apparently uncertain Israeli government, plus tensions that could easily extend to Syria and Iran is creating a volatile mixture.One cannot justify the destruction by Israel of the civilian infrastructure in Lebanon and Palestinian territory. Russian government statement.


ISRAEL IN LEBANON

March 1978: Israel invades to stop Palestinian attacks

1982: Full-scale invasion; Israel occupies Beirut; pro-Israel militias massacre Palestinian refugees

May 1983: Israel pulls back, but keeps "security zone"

February 1992: Israeli air strike kills Hezbollah leader

1996: Israel launches "Grapes of Wrath" raids on Hezbollah; 100 civilians die under Israeli shelling of UN base at Qana

May 2000: Israel withdraws troops from Lebanon

January 2004: Prisoners-bodies swap agreed between Hezbollah and Israel



See also
Lebanon timeline
Hezbollah
Hamas
Fatah
Should we be nice to radical Islam?
Leaderless resistance
Israel
Hamas in power and how to deal with it
Hamas makes strong showing in vote
The Hamas Covenant
Hamas, the PA and money
Israel gambles
Israel loosing support
Israeli army practices condemned
What about Iran and Israel?
An amazing or shitty little country?
The Muslim Brotherhood Project
The Barrier

meditations
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