The seven regions explored are:

Despite the economic slowdown of the late 1990s, Latin America has experienced the highest per capita gross income levels of any developing region in the world.

Two countries alone--Brazil and Mexico for about 50% of the region's population. Latin America is one of the fastest aging regions in the world. Its population of 60 year olds and older will triple, while those under 15 years will drop from 30% to 20%.

Over 80% of the population in Brazil lives in urban centres. By 2015, Sao Paulo's population exceeds 20 million and Rio's population will approach the 12 million mark. Mexico City will also face major infrastructure challenges in the coming years.

Intra-country economic disparity will continue to grow in Latin America . For example, in Mexico, which has the world's tenth largest economy and the highest per capita income in Latin America, 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. Brazil, which has the fifth largest population and the eighth largest GNP in the world, is still one of the most unequal nations in the world.

Brazil is currently the leading member of the Common Market of the South (Mercosur), the fourth-largest economic bloc in the world with a GNP of more than $1 trillion and over 250 million inhabitants.

One-fourth of the world's plant species live in Brazilian rainforests, making it promising for the development of new drugs; however, governmental plans to develop the Amazon rainforest will leave only 5 percent of the rainforest intact by 2020.

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The share of the elderly in continental Europe is expected to grow from 17 to 31 percent between 2000 and 2050. A staggering one-half of all inhabitants on continental Europe will be 49 or older.

The E.U will admit ten new member states in May, 2004: Cyprus , Czech Republic, Estonia , Hungary, Latvia,Lithuania , Malta, Poland, Slovakia , and Slovenia. This enlargement will add 75 million people to the 400 million already living in the E.U, but the increase of population by nearly 20% adds no more than 5% to the union's wealth. Expansion will add 23% to the EU's land area and create a combined economy of $9.3 trillion, approaching that of the U.S.

The E.U has created a Rapid Reaction Force (RRF), a corps of 60,000 soldiers that are ready to deal with regional conflicts, humanitarian crises, and terrorism. This military force can be deployed on 60 days' notice and kept in the field for as long as a year. The RRF is unlikely to compete with NATO as the primary security force in Europe, because of the large military capabilities gap between EU member nations and the U.S. , which provides much of the military backing to NATO.

As many as 3m-4m people will migrate from central to western Europe in the 25 years after enlargement, about 1% of the present E.U population. Roughly half of those will be workers. Based on past trends, at least half the migrants will head for Germany.

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In spite its abundance of oil wealth, the current combined economic output of the Middle East is approximately $700 billion-less than the corresponding GDP level for the economy of Canada alone and a mere 2.2% of the global economy.

50 years ago, this region accounted for 2.5% of the total world population. Today it accounts for 5%. By 2050, we expect it to grow to more than 7% of the world total-to some 560 million people. The region currently accounts for a little over 300 million people-about the same as the United States and about a quarter of the populations in India and China, respectively. Three countries alone-Egypt, Iran and Algeria--make up roughly one-half of the total population in the region.

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer, with output of around 8m barrels/day. It has by far the world's largest proven reserves of crude oil, currently estimated at close to 260bn barrels. Based on current output, this is sufficient for almost 90 years' extraction. In recent years oil wealth has transformed the country's economy, although its politics and society remain conservative. The economy is dominated by the oil sector, which, since the end of the Gulf war in 1991, has contributed an average of 35% of nominal GDP, around 75% of government revenue and 85% of export receipts.

According to the UN Development Program, if the work force in the Arab countries grows by only 2-3% a year, it will translate into demand for 50 million new jobs across the region by 2010. If unemployment persists at current levels, the pool of unemployed could easily double-to some 25 million by 2010.

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Africans are dying at the rate of one every ten seconds. That amounts to 360 AIDS-related deaths every hour, 2,640 every day, 3 million every year. Within seven years, the United Nations estimates Africa will have more than 42 million orphans, half of them because of AIDS.

According to the UN South African Human Development Report 2000, nearly half of all South Africans live in poverty. 18 million South Africans live below the poverty line - the equivalent of 3 million households living off R353 a month. Close to 30% of the Western Cape's population lives in poverty.60% of those who speak an African first language live in poverty, compared to 1% of whites.

South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV/AIDS in the world, as well as one of the world's fastest-growing epidemics. Already, 1 in 4 South African women between ages 20 and 29 are infected with the virus, and there are an estimated 1600 new infections daily in South Africa. In 10 years, South Africa's GDP is expected to shrink 17%. There are currently 12 million orphans in South Africa, and by 2010, there will be 40 million.

Nigeria is the 5th largest exporter of oil to the United States, and a top-ten exporter worldwide. Profits from oil exploration have attracted the military and, rather than being a blessing, oil is seen by many Nigerians as a curse. In its 39 years of independence, Nigeria has been ruled by its military for 30 years.

In the year 2000, over half the countries in Africa and 20% of the population were affected by conflict. There were eleven major conflicts with more than a thousand war related deaths a year. The extent of conflict was greater than in any other region in the world. The spread of future conflicts continues to threaten the political and economic stability of many nations in the subcontinent.

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In 1950, the Soviet Union had the fourth largest population on the planet. By 2050, Russia will fall to 17th place…

One of the key drivers of Russia and Eurasia in the next quarter century will be the crisis of a rapidly declining population. Coupled with the alarming prevalence of HIV/AIDS and weapons of mass destruction from the Soviet era, Russia faces significant challenges in its future.

Russia's current population, which stands at approximately 144 million, will fall to roughly 136 million by 2025. The Ukraine alone has experienced a 6.1% decline since 1991. Along with the issue of depopulation, Russia will see its society aging, with half of the population over the age of 40 by 2020.

With the highest growth rate of HIV/AIDS in the world, the number of affected citizens in Russia is expected to triple by the year 2020. The Ukraine, with roughly 400,000 cases of HIV/AIDS, leads the region in HIV/AIDS prevalence.

Left from the days of the Cold War, Russia continues to hold large inventories of weapons of mass destruction.

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A full-scale nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could kill up to twelve million people immediately and cause up to seven million non-fatal casualties…….

According to an assessment by the Pentagon (New York Times, 28 May 2003 ), even a limited war, with only a small number of warheads being detonated, would have a cataclysmic effect. Individual nuclear warheads are thought to be capable of producing a 20 kiloton blast, the equivalent of 20,000 tons of TNT. This is comparable to the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

South Asia has the highest number of people in the world living below the poverty line. One-third of the 1.4 billion population lives in poverty, one-quarter is hungry, one-fifth of children are out of school and one-tenth of children die before they reach age five.

Kashmir is 'the longest living unresolved conflict in the world.' Since 1947, Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them over the disputed region of Kashmir. Since 1989, approximately 60, 000 casualties have died as a result of the dispute in Kashmir .

India has the world's second largest population, at a current population of about 1.1 billion people. By the year 2050, India will surpass China as the world's most populous nation with a population of over 1.5 billion. It also the world's biggest democracy, with more than 1 billion people representing a myriad religions and ethnicities. It is home to a burgeoning middle-class estimated at 250 million, nearly equal to the entire population of the United States.

Pakistan will rise to be the 4th most populous country in 2015 at 204.3 million. The population will reach 250 million in 2025, 350 million in 2050

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Because of East Asia's economic growth, the number of people living on $2 a day will fall from more than a billion in 1990 to a projected 340 million by the year 2015.

At the core of this movement is China, of course. However, the country must sustain its current growth rates to maintain momentum in reforms and the opening to the world economy through WTO accession. If rapid growth does not continue, serious social pressures could emerge from the huge unemployed sections of the economy.

By 2025, Japan will have 5.2 million elderly people. By 2050, 42.3 percent of the population will be over age 60. As the workforce shrinks, fewer workers will be expected to support a growing number of retirees, placing strains on the national pension and social security systems. Japan's current net immigration is close to zero, and Japanese society remains reluctant towards immigrants and their assimilation into society.

Indonesia sits on generous oil reserves of its own, and through its waters pass about half of all the world's shipping, including most of the energy requirements of Japan and South Korea. For Indonesian taxpayers, the aftermath of the Asian crisis has been a disaster. The recapitalization of the banking system in the past six years has cost them around 650 trillion rupiahs ($77 billion). Around 100 banks out of 250 have been closed and the rest restructured.

electronics make up almost 70% of its exports, and it sends 30% of them to America. It consumes more imported oil per dollar of GDP than any other country in South-East Asia. It suffers from terrorism, insurgencies and crime. Its ballooning public debt is already weighing on the economy.

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About 8,700 people every hour, 146 people every minute, and 2.5 people every second are being added to the global population…

The key theme in population growth is stratification. In effect, many of the populations of developed countries will actually be smaller in 2025 than they are today. Over the same period, the developing world will experience an enormous youth bulge. Reconciling these two demographic movements is the primary challenge of the revolution in population.

Currently at 6.30 billion, the total world population will grow by almost two billion by 2025. Eighty percent of the world's population will be in countries least capable of supporting further population growth.

The rate of population growth (i.e., the ratio of total increase in population each year to the mean population) has decreased drastically since the 1960s. It will continue to fall. By 2025, the world population will likely be growing less than 1% annually. According to the latest estimates from the United Nations, the global population could stabilize in the year 2100 at about 11 billion people.

The population of the developed world is contracting. At least 33 countries across the world are expected to be substantially smaller than they are today. Populations in these developed countries are also getting old--and in the case of Germany and Japan and a few others, very old. In stark contrast, a number of developing countries will have very young populations that their economies may not be able to support.

Another huge problem facing us is "hyper-urbanization." By 2025, the portion of the world's population living in urban areas will constitute nearly 60% of the total world population. Already, up to one-half of the populations in the largest cities in the developing world are living in unplanned and illegal squatter colonies that are highly vulnerable to disease and natural disasters.

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The combined effects of population growth and income growth are expected to double global food consumption in the next 30 years…

The key theme in resource management is not availability, but rather allocation and distribution. Water, energy and food are the main core resources at issue.

Despite dire predictions, starvation has declined drastically since the end of the Second World War. The issue now is whether increases in productivity can keep up with rises in population. This issue involves not just global food production, but also the availability and distribution to specific food-deficient regions throughout the world. In light of diminishing land resources, new advances in biotechnology--and shifts in public attitudes--may be necessary to avert severe dislocations.

The most serious resource challenge in 2025, we believe, will be the scarcity of water. In a number of geographical areas, populations are growing as freshwater availability is declining. The effects of this widening imbalance include poor sanitation and public health, inadequate irrigation, and profound geopolitical implications.

Our view is that reliance on hydrocarbons is not likely to change significantly through our 25-year timeframe. The geopolitics of energy, however, will change. We expect to see a significant concentration of production in the Persian Gulf. On the demand side, we expect to see drastic increases in the developing world, Asia in particular.

Food, energy, and water will work in concert with many of the other revolutions (particularly population and conflict) to affect the overall health of the environment over the next 25 years. Preventing environmental degradation, which has affected many parts of the industrial world, may become a greater consideration in industrial and agricultural practices.

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A research team recently assembled 70 Sony Playstation devices into a super computer capable of a half trillion operations per second...

We point to what we believe will be the three major and simultaneous drivers of technological change over the next 25 years: computation, genomics, and nanotechnology.

We should expect continued remarkable increases in processing speeds, especially as advances in molecular and quantum computing find practical applications. In addition to achieving new speeds, computers will become ubiquitous--throughout our workplaces and our homes (if those are not the same thing), on our bodies, and even in our bodies.

In genomics, the first wave of advances will change the face of medicine by generating new levels of genetic diagnosis, new methods of genetic therapy, and, by 2025, germ-line therapy--which, in effect, will give us control over our own heredity. In addition, advances in the area of proteomics, the study of the body's proteins, will widen the pool of new medicines and cures.

The world is on the threshold of a period in which products will be far lighter, far stronger, and far more efficient. Current applications of micro-electro-mechanical machines are already extensive, ranging from controlling operations in cars to use in a variety of medical procedures. There is expected to be a movement from this technology to the molecular and even atomic levels. This will revolutionize materials science, chemistry, and physics.

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We have reached a point, as MIT's Nicholas Negroponte has noted, at which "a fiber the size of a human hair can deliver every issue of the Wall Street Journal ever made in less than a second." [Source: Negroponte, Nicholas. Being Digital. New York: Random House, Inc. 1995.]

Advances in technology have expanded information flows, spanned geographies, reduced time lags in communication, and opened new opportunities faster than ever before.

Economists have traditionally pointed to three "factors of production": land, labour, and capital. In the information economy that is materializing, all of these will be overshadowed by a new and primary factor: knowledge.

We are about to witness the growth of what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan calls the "weightless economy"-- an economy in which knowledge and know-how assume ever more significant positions relative to the "material" world.

The knowledge revolution is systematically breaking down national barriers, redefining communities, evolving new cultures. Access to information and knowledge has been facilitated by the development of Cyber-Universities like Mexico's Universidad Virtual and University of Phoenix.

Knowledge is increasingly perishable. As a result, not everyone will be able to engage in lifelong education. This knowledge gap is likely to create large social inequities, a problem policymakers will be pressed to address.

Increasing dependence on information flows also means increasing vulnerability. Hacking, identity theft, and cyberstalking are all types of destructive, predatory behaviour that can be accomplished with relatively little know-how and few tools.

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Of the world's 100 largest economic entities, 42 are now corporations, not countries...

The global revolutions we have identified will severely test the capacity of organizations--from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to corporations to international organizations to national governments.

NGOs are leveraging technology as never before, contributing to a surge in integration within the NGO community and the globalization of civil society groups. Expect to see a sharpening of governance within civil society through alliances and other techniques once reserved for the private sector.

In 2002, General Motors earned revenues making it the 24th largest economic entity in the world. New demands are emerging on corporate governance (corporate citizenship). Companies face the challenge of juggling a triple bottom line from shareholders, management, and the public at large.

The "atomization" of authority (primarily through technology, the conferral of greater authority to the individual) is making it difficult for governments to respond to the needs of their constituencies, on the one hand, and to address broader social goals, on the other. Governments across the world are falling behind.

Many of the constraints that apply to the nation-state also apply to international organizations. The gruelling debate over the role of the United Nations in the current situation in Iraq have demonstrated how realities have simply outpaced the capacities of many of the Bretton Woods organizations.

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"When a Brazilian brews her morning coffee today, she is likely to use electricity from a power plant in Uruguay that runs on natural gas from Argentina provided by a Chilean company. She drives to work in a Ford fueled with Mexican gasoline, and her Canadian-owned factory is powered by a natural gas pipeline from Bolivia."      
 -Mack MacLarty, Former White House official and CSIS Senior Advisor

Advances in technology have not only increased the scope, speed, and efficiency of business operations worldwide, but they have also brought down the costs of distance by gradually eliminating the burdens of communication, geography, transportation, language, and even time. The result has been a staggering increase in the cross-border flow of goods and services.

The aggregate output growth rate has steadily increased an average of more than 3.6 percent annually in the last 25 years, and we expect the trend to continue through 2050. The benefits of this level of integration apply to developed and developing country alike. In fact, the United Nations Development Program maintains that developing countries have achieved in 30 years what the industrialized nations took 100 years to accomplish.

The obstacles to continued economic development are tremendous. A staggering 2.8 billion live on less that $2 a day. In fact, 1.2 billion live on less than $1 a day. The evidence suggests that these income gaps are widening, not closing.

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"From now on, any terrorist group planning its own terrorist activity is going to use what was done on September 11 as the standard for success."

- Zbigniew Brzezinski, CSIS Counselor

Patterns of conflict are changing in an era when nation states no longer have a monopoly over super violence. Modern militaries must rebuild their capacities to adapt to new threats and handle a range of dissimilar operations.

In the future, the year 2001 will be remembered for the formal arrival of asymmetric warfare in the United States. The insidious attacks on September 11 represent a quantum leap in the scale of modern terrorism, and unfortunately seem to herald the beginning of an era in which groups and organizations, with the determination to cause great destruction, will seek to use weapons of mass effect- including nuclear, radiological, biological, and chemical weapons.

Another threat looming over nations is cyber-warfare. Armed with the tools of cyber-warfare, sub state, non-state or even individual actors are now powerful enough to destabilize targeted states and societies.

The patterns of conflict during the past few years indicate a decline in the number of disputes between nations, but intra-state warfare is on the rise. The effects of this type of conflict often spill over to neighboring nations, and in light of WMD proliferation are increasingly dangerous for belligerents and non-belligerents alike.

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